Situation Summary

Last week in Ethiopia, clashes between Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) persisted in Amhara region, while government operations targeting the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — forces resulted in reported fatalities in Oromia region. Meanwhile, the rest of Ethiopia continued to be relatively peaceful. 

Clashes in Amhara region

Armed clashes continued in Amhara region, with fighting between Fano militia and government forces occurring in ​​North Wello, North Shewa, West Gojam, South Wello, South Gondar, and North Gondar zones. According to government sources, clashes fought on 6 February near Alem Ketema in North Shewa zone resulted in the death of the head of politics and propaganda for the Fano militia in the zone.¹Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) Defense Force, ‘Action has been taken against the head of politics and propaganda of the extremist group in North Shewa zone,’ 5 February 2024 

Fano militias are highly decentralized and have faced major hurdles in unifying into a single fighting unit. Government forces targeted Fano militia leadership and supporters with arrests in 2022 and early 2023 but were not able to effectively prevent the Fano insurgency from spreading. While clashes have calmed from a height in August 2023, regular fighting is reported in Amhara region, highlighting an ongoing security challenge. On 2 February, the House of People’s Representatives voted to extend the state of emergency — declared mainly in Amhara region in August 2023 — by an additional four months. 

Government Operations Against OLA/OLF-Shane in Oromia Region

A transport strike declared by the OLA/OLF-Shane two weeks ago prompted  action from federal government forces, resulting in  several clashes involving the insurgent group and the Republican Guard forces of ENDF — originally established in 2018 to protect the constitutional order and high-level officials and their families.²Daniel Mimbere, ‘Photos: ‘Republican Guard’ demonstrates readiness to protect Ethiopia PM,’ Africanews, 23 December 2018 These clashes continued last week when ENDF clashed with OLA/OLF-Shane fighters on 7 February in Liban Jawi woreda, West Shewa zone. The government forces claim to have killed 70 militants of the insurgent group, including two top leaders.³FDRE Defense Force, ‘The leadership and members of the terrorist group were hit by the action taken by the core unit center of the force against Shane,’ 10 February 2024 Both parties also clashed in Boneya Boshe woreda in East Wollega zone.

The Interim Regional Administration of Tigray Meets with the Federal Government

On 9 February, the leadership of the Interim Administration of Tigray met with the federal government in Addis Ababa to discuss the implementation of the Pretoria agreement — signed between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – and disputed territories. This is the first time since the signing of the agreement that the interim administration and the federal government have met.⁴Nardos Yoseph, ‘Ethiopia: Pretoria Agreement, Referendum Proposals Reanimate Tensions Between Fed and Tigray Admin,’ AllAfrica, 10 February 2024 Over the past two weeks, both parties have released statements related to the agreement — the  Interim Administration of Tigray accusing the federal government of not allowing internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return to their homes.⁵The Interim Administration of the Regional State of Tigray, ‘​​Statement on Current Affairs,’ 5 February 2024

The federal government responded in an eight-page statement detailing the many ways it had upheld the agreement — including by allowing the TPLF to establish an interim regional government, resumption of public services, and budgets provided for reconstruction. The federal government also stated that it had provided budget support for the disarmament and rehabilitation of former combatants.⁶FDRE Government Communication Service, ‘The Pretoria Agreement Requires a Practical Response,’ 2 February 2024 At the heart of the issue between the two former warring parties is the status of the disputed territories of Raya in southern Tigray zone and Welkait, Tsgede, and Humera areas in Western Tigray zone — de facto administered by Amhara region since the beginning of the northern Ethiopia conflict in November 2020.

A year after the signing of the agreement, on November 2023, the federal government announced that IDPs from “contested areas” in Tigray region would be returned, and that a referendum would decide the status of these areas.⁷FDRE Government Communications Service, ‘Statement of the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Regarding the first anniversary of the signing of the “Agreement For Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities,”’ 6 November 2023 The Interim Administration of Tigray has voiced its opposition to any referendum.⁸Addis Standard, ‘News: Referendum in Western Tigray not feasible amidst demographic changes, persistent displacement: Tigray interim admin,’ 13 February 2024 In the past two weeks, protests by IDPs and former members of the TPLF force – known as the Tigray Defense Force – were held in Tigray region, pressuring the interim regional administration to do more in implementing the Pretoria agreement, including the return of IDP’s to their homes (for more on these protests, see the EPO Weekly Update (30 January 2024) and the EPO Weekly Update (6 February 2024)).