Ethiopia Weekly Update (8 October 2024)

Situation summary

The Amhara regional government and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) released a joint statement revealing plans for further military operations against Fano militias in Amhara. This development followed reports of mass arrests throughout the region. In a separate development, tensions between the leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) escalated this week after the Getachew Reda faction expressed its intention to convene the 14th general assembly of the party and seek legal avenues to oust the faction led by Debretsion Gebermichael.

Another round of mass arrests in Amhara

Since 28 September, in what the government said was part of its fight against Fano militias, security forces have arrested over 100 people across Amhara region, including university lecturers, civil servants, business owners, and members of political parties.¹Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), ‘Amhara region: Arrests that do not follow human rights provisions and principles should be stopped immediately,’ 6 October 2024; Amnesty International, ‘Ethiopia: Mass arbitrary detentions in Amhara region deepen erosion of rule of law,’ 1 October 2024 Amnesty International accused the government of “mass arbitrary detentions,” while the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission asked the government to “stop arrests which do not follow procedures.”²Amnesty International, ‘Ethiopia: Mass arbitrary detentions in Amhara region deepen erosion of rule of law,’ 1 October 2024; EHRC, ‘Amhara region: Arrests that do not follow human rights provisions and principles should be stopped immediately,’ 6 October 2024 On 1 October, a National Movement of Amhara party member in the House of Representatives and another member of the ruling Prosperity Party in the Amhara Regional Council were apprehended in Bahir Dar city and released after two days.³Mulgeta Belay, ‘NaMA’s member of parliament and Amhara regional council member of the Prosperity Party were arrested,’ Ethiopian Insider, 2 October 2024; Mulgeta Belay, ‘Two members of the council who were arrested by security forces in Bahir Dar city were released,’ Ethiopian Insider, 3 October 2024 On 2 October, the Amhara regional government and the ENDF released a joint statement announcing another round of military operations against Fano militias, citing the militias’ continued violence and refusal to engage in peace talks. According to the statement, this round of operations would focus on three groups: leaders of Fano militias, those who support the militias, and those who provide them with logistical support and information, including civil servants and business owners.⁴Facebook @AmharaMediaCorporation, ‘A joint statement from the government of Amhara region and the national defense force,’ 2 October 2024 The Amhara regional government spokesperson refuted the allegation of mass arrests.⁵Facebook @AmharaMediaCorporation, ‘A joint statement from the government of Amhara region and the national defense force,’ 2 October 2024 

A day after the announcement, Fano militias announced a closure of roads across the region.⁶Abebe Fikir, ‘Residents expressed their displeasure due to the suspension of transport services in some areas of the Amhara region,’ The Reporter, 6 October 2024 Last week, ACLED records armed clashes between government security forces and Fano militias in Awi, Central Gondar, East Gojam, West Gojam, and North Shewa zones. The majority of these clashes were recorded in West Gojam zone. In this zone, confrontations were recorded in and around the towns of Jiga, Finote Selam, Denbecha, and Bure. An unidentified group also carried out bomb attacks in various locations in the capital, Bahir Dar city, including near a school.⁷EHRC, ‘Amhara region: Arrests that do not follow human rights provisions and principles should be stopped immediately,’ 6 October 2024 Bombings, particularly grenade attacks, are common in Bahir Dar. Since April 2023, the start of the Amhara conflict, ACLED records seven explosions or remote violence events in the city. On 7 October, the ENDF said it had defused an explosive allegedly placed by Fano members around Kibead area in kebele 13 of Bahir Dar city.⁸Facebook @fdredefense.official, ‘It was stated that an explosive placed by the extremist force was defused without causing any damage after the community provided an information to the force,’ 7 October 2024

A race to control the TPLF party

Tensions due to an internal dispute among the TPLF leadership have escalated, with a high probability of the dispute surging to violence, as members of the Tigray Defense Forces, which were under the TPLF during the northern Ethiopia conflict, are not yet disarmed and demobilized. Last week, the faction led by Getachew Reda — who also serves as the president of the Tigray interim regional government — met on 30 September and 1 October to discuss how to save the party from fracturing.⁹Facebook @VOA Amharic, ‘The group led by Mr. Getachew Reda has started holding a meeting called “Saving the TPLF,”’ 30 September 2024; Mulgeta Atsebeha, ‘The leaders of the TPLF, led by Mr. Geta, said that they are preparing to hold a conference,’ VOA Amharic, 2 October 2024 A similar meeting was held in August. During last week’s meeting, the Getachew faction expressed its intention to restore the party’s legal status, convene its 14th general assembly, and legally oust the leaders of the faction led by the TPLF’s current chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael.¹⁰Mulgeta Atsebeha, ‘The leaders of the TPLF, led by Mr. Geta, said that they are preparing to hold a conference,’ VOA Amharic, 2 October 2024; Luwam Atakilti, ‘“We will save the party by peacefully and legally eliminating the TPLF wing that held the conference” TPLF faction led by Getachew Reda,’ The Reporter, 2 October 2024 The meeting came two months after the Debretsion faction held its own 14th general assembly, which the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had said violated the conditions the TPLF must meet to be registered as a party, and which the Getachew faction decried as illegal.¹¹Luwam Atkilti, ‘TPLF started its conference amid many oppositions and warnings,’ The Reporter, 14 August 2024 On 9 August, the NEBE rejected the TPLF’s request to reinstate the legal status it held before the northern Ethiopia conflict, saying that legally it could not reinstate a party that had engaged in acts of violence.¹²Sisay Sehlu, ‘The TPLF’s request to return to its legal status was filed under special circumstances,’ The Reporter, 11 August 2024 The NEBE instead registered the TPLF as a party under a “special condition”¹³Facebook, National Election Board of Ethiopia NEBE, ‘A statement from the National Election Board of Ethiopia regarding the legal status of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF),’ 9 August 2024 and outlined the steps the TPLF must take to be fully registered. Per the steps the NEBE laid out, the TPLF must inform the board of any general assembly at least 21 days in advance so members of the board can monitor proceedings. The general assembly held by the Debretsion faction did not fulfill these steps.

After the Getachew faction’s recent announcement that it would hold a new 14th general assembly and remove Debretsion faction leaders from party leadership, the Debretsion faction responded on 7 October saying it had removed 13 Getachew faction members from the interim regional government and replaced them with its own members.¹⁴Facebook @tplf.officia, ‘The decision to reshuffle leaders in the cabinet of the interim administration of Tigray,’ 7 October 2024; Mulegta Atsebeha, ‘The TPLF group led by Dr Debretsion said that they have removed Ato Getachew from the position of regional president,’ VOA Amharic, 7 October 2024 The faction’s statement also indicated that it is working with the federal government to replace Getachew as interim regional president and install a Debretsion faction member in his place. Abiy appointed Getachew as president of the interim government on 23 March 2023, tasking him with setting up an inclusive administration.¹⁵Reuters, ‘Ethiopia establishes Tigray interim administration as part of peace plan,’ 23 March 2023 Following the August general assembly, the Debretsion faction took less drastic measures, suspending 16 members of the TPLF’s executive committee who are leaders of the Getachew faction from the party and calling for a review of the TPLF’s representation in the interim administration. However, it seems the Getachew faction’s announcement that it was preparing the 14th assembly might have pushed the Debretsion faction to take immediate action to control both the TPLF and the interim government.

The interim government deemed this decision an official coup d’etat and stated it would take action against the Debretsion faction, though it is unclear what that action might be.¹⁶Facebook @TigrayCAO, ‘Update on the Interim Administration of the Tigray Region,’ 7 October 2024 These back-and-forth statements sparked tension in Tigray, as many feared violence among the factions. In response to the factions’ dueling statements about the interim government, the Tigray Forces said they would not allow “anarchy” in the region.¹⁷Facebook @addismaleda, ‘“We won’t just watch when there is a problem” Tigray security forces,’ 7 October 2024