Ethiopia Weekly Update (22 October 2024)

Situation summary

Fano militias attacked military outposts in Woldiya town, North Wello zone in Amhara region, sparking clashes and shelling. Nevertheless, last week, political violence decreased by 62% in the region compared to the previous week. In Oromia region, clashes in North Shewa zone dashed hopes for peace talks raised by the recent separation of a commander of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — Central Command.

Political violence intensifies in eastern Amhara region

Last week, clashes were reported in eastern Amhara region. In the previous weeks, clashes were concentrated in western Amhara (for more, see the Ethiopia Weekly (15 October 2024) and the Ethiopia Weekly (8 October 2024)). On 13 October, Fano militias attacked military bases housing Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) soldiers in Woldiya town. ENDF soldiers fired mortar rounds at Fano positions in sections of the city. Transportation was interrupted as fighting continued for a second day, 14 October, around the Sunday Market (Ehud Gebiya) area of the town. Meanwhile, in Dessie town, 118 kilometers to the south, an unidentified armed actor planted a bomb in a vehicle targeting the presiding judge in Dessie woreda, killing him and wounding his driver. Additional clashes between the ENDF and Fano militias were reported in West Gojam, North Wello, and West Gondar zones. 

Eastern Amhara region, and in particular the North and South Wello zones, are inhabited by mostly ethnic Amhara Muslims who have faced persecution and targeted violence due to their religious status. Despite this, the Fano insurgency — often more associated with the western areas of Gojam and Shewa Christian areas, has been active throughout the conflict in these zones. Demographic differences and internal competition among the Fano militias and their diaspora supporters were some of the barriers identified as a hurdle to uniting the Fano militias across Amhara region. While the Fano insurgency is not as active in the east as it is in the western areas of Amhara region — where Amhara nationalism is intertwined with Orthodox Christian identity¹Andrew DeCort, ‘Christian Nationalism Is Tearing Ethiopia Apart,’ Foreign Policy, 18 June 2022 —  attacks against ENDF facilities in major cities in Amhara region’s east could mark a change and prove that Fano militias have managed to overcome the unification challenges they faced earlier. While clashes in Woldiya this week mark a major escalation, military outposts in Woldiya have been targeted before. On 14 June, Fano militias attacked a police station, resulting in the death of at least three police officers.  

Clashes in Jeldu woreda, Oromia, dash hopes for peace

In Oromia region, clashes were reported between government forces and militants identified as  OLA/OLF-Shane in Kilbe Abo kebele, Jeldu woreda in West Shewa zone. On 17 October, the OLA/OLF-Shane opened fire at the militias, leading to fierce armed clashes between the two actors. Due to this clash, at least 18 local kebele militias, one police officer, and an unidentified number of militants were killed.²Seyoum Getu and Yohannas Gebreegziabher, ‘19 government militants were killed in Jeldu district of West Showa zone,’ 19 October 2024 Additionally, members of the OLA/OLF-Shane abducted an unidentified number of people. 

Resumed fighting in this area, considered part of the OLA/OLF-Shane’s ‘Central zone,’ dims possibilities of peace. The hopes for peace talks were high after former OLA/OLF-Shane Central commander Jal Sanyi Nagasa separated himself from the main body of the OLA/OLF-Shane at the beginning of the month.

Clashes between OLA/OLF-Shane forces and ENDF soldiers were also reported between 7 to 12 October in Dera woreda, North Shewa zone. During the same time, clashes between the ENDF and Fano militias were also reported in Dera woreda. At least seven people were reportedly killed in these two side-by-side clashes. Government officials issued contradicting statements concerning the situation in North Shewa zone, with one official indicating that there were no current clashes, and another suggesting that clashes had never stopped.³Tsehay Dimtew, ‘Residents said that “seven civilians were killed in the ongoing conflict” in Dera woreda,’ VOA Amharic, 15 October 2024