Ethiopia situation update (2 April 2025)

Political violence surges in Amhara as Fano militias initiate a new round of operations 

On 19 March, four Fano militias — Amhara Fano in Gondar, Shewa, Gojam, and Wello — announced they had begun a coordinated operation called Andinet (Amharic for “unity”), targeting security forces bases in the Amhara region.¹YouTube @EthiopianMediaServices, 20 March 2025 (Amharic) In a statement released on 21 March, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) acknowledged the operation but claimed to have effectively suppressed it.²Facebook @fdredefense.official, 21 March 2025 (Amharic)

From 19 to 28 March, ACLED records 79 battle events between Fano militias and government security forces, mostly ENDF. The majority of these battles were reported in the West Gojam zone, followed by the East Gojam and South Gondar zones. The end of April will mark the second year since the start of the conflict between Fano militias and the government in the Amhara region. Due to their organizational structure, which is based on birthplace, and the absence of a common ideology, Fano militias have found it challenging to unify under a single command. This fragmentation has resulted in rivalry among Fano militia leaders, each vying to become the leader of the Fano. Such competition has occasionally resulted in conflicts between the militias. This and the prolonged war, which is affecting the daily life of Amharas, have weakened popular support for Fano militias.³Observed by ACLED through monitoring of online communities and pro-Fano activists and elites. Consequently, the primary objective of the Andinet operation may be to demonstrate the potential for the unification of the Fano militias under one leadership — as the name of the operation indicates — and to showcase their strength to regain support from both local and diaspora Amharas as the two-year anniversary approaches.  

Subsequently, the ENDF accused General Migbey Hayle, a member of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) stationed in Tigray, and some unnamed associates of organizing the Fano militias.⁴Facebook @fdredefense.official, 21 March 2025 (Amharic) Migbey, the Tigray Peace and Security Bureau, and a representative of Wello Fano militias refuted the ENDF claim, denying any connections among them.⁵YouTube @ethioforum, 22 March 2025 (Amharic); Reuters, “Ethiopia’s army says it killed more than 300 Fano militiamen in two days of fighting,” 22 March 2025; Facebook, Tigray Region Bureau of Peace and Security, 23 March 2025 Migbey was among the three TDF generals who were dismissed by the  Interim Regional Administration of Tigray president on 10 March, after being accused of provoking violence among youth and security forces — one of the latest chapters in the intensifying rift within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The general is also one of the 200 TDF leaders who support the faction led by TPLF President Debretsion Gebremichael and who have forcibly taken control of various interim local administrations to install pro-Debretsion local officials.

For months, the Debretsion faction, along with several TDF leaders, have been accused by the Ethiopian government and the leader of the other faction, interim administration president Getachew Reda, of working with Eritrea to spark a conflict between the two countries. Numerous observers believe the Eritrean government is collaborating with members of the Debretsion faction and Fano militias to attack the Abiy Ahmed-led government, as the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea deteriorated after the signing of the Pretoria agreement between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government. The Eritrean government said it had no interest in Ethiopia’s domestic affairs and denied any links with the TPLF. Instead, it accused the Ethiopian government of planning to invade Eritrea to gain access to the Red Sea.⁶X @hawelti, 18 March 2025; X @hawelti, 13 March 2025

Tensions between the two countries are rising,⁷Borkena, “Eritrea Mobilizes Military Reserves, Imposes Travel Restrictions Amid Rising Tensions with Ethiopia,” 21 February 2025; YouTube @EBCworld, 8 March 2025; YouTube @ethiopiainsider, 6 March 2025 but both have significant motivations to avoid a direct confrontation. In such a scenario, the ENDF could find itself surrounded by potential adversaries — the TPLF, Fano militias, and Eritrean forces — and the Ethiopian government has already withdrawn its troops from major towns in Tigray in an apparent effort to avoid conflict.⁸YouTube @Reyot, 17 March 2025 The Eritrean government also cannot afford a direct confrontation with the ENDF due to the repercussions it would face from the international community, which would add to current sanctions by various governments. However, the possibility of both sides supporting a proxy war in the region is high.

Abiy seeks to change Tigray’s interim administration president

In a 20 March speech to parliament — on the heels of the local administration takeovers in Central and Southeast zones and Mekele city — Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said a change to the interim administration’s leadership was inevitable.⁹YouTube @EBCworld, 20 March 2025 He called on all Tigrayans to submit their nominations for a new interim president via email starting 26 March 2025.¹⁰Facebook @PMAbiyAhmedAli, 26 March 2025 The move stirred controversy over the federal government’s authority to make such a decision on its own.  

The Debretsion faction opposed Abiy’s call for nominations, accusing the prime minister of violating the Pretoria agreement — which states that the interim administration is to be established through dialogue — by planning to unilaterally appoint the regional president. The faction insisted that the appointment of the interim president should be based on the agreement, not the proclamations and regulations put in place by the federal government.¹¹Facebook @tplf.officia, 26 March 2025 Additionally, the Debretsion faction proposed that the current deputy president and head of the TDF, Tadese Werede, be appointed president of the interim administration.  

The interim administration was established on 23 March 2023, with the appointment of TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda as president. The proclamation establishing the interim administration set a two-year term for the body, without specifying how it could be extended. On 1 April, parliament approved an amendment to the proclamation that allows the government to extend the interim administration’s terms twice.¹²BBC Amharic, “Proclamation approved to extend the term of interim regional administrations to two years,” 1 April 2025 The government plans to extend the administration’s term for one year, until the seventh general election of Ethiopia, which is scheduled for 2026.¹³YouTube @EBCworld, 20 March 2025

Clashes reignite between Ethiopia’s Dassenech community and Kenya’s Turkana community 

On 22 March, 11 ethnic Dassenech youths clashed with Turkana ethnic militias in Kukruk area in Dasenech-Kuraz woreda, South Ethiopia region, reportedly resulting in the deaths of four Ethiopians and one ethnic Turkana elder. Additionally, three other Dassenech youths sustained injuries. The youth traveled to the area to assess the situation in the aftermath of days-long clashes between the two communities at the end of February, which had led to at least 30 reported deaths. On 23 March, a Turkana ethnic militia launched an assault in Goro Kebele in Dasenech-Kuraz woreda and clashed with the local Dassanech community as they attempted to steal hundreds of cattle. One ethnic Turkana person was reportedly killed during this clash. The local community managed to recover the livestock. The following day, the Turkana militia clashed with the Dassenech militia in Dasenech-Kuraz woreda, retaliating for the previous day’s clash. This confrontation reportedly resulted in the deaths of four Dassenech pastoralists, and three others were injured.