Situation Summary

Last week in Ethiopia, protests by internally displaced people (IDP) were reported in multiple locations in Tigray region, while fighting between Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) persisted in Amhara region. Intense clashes were also reported between the ENDF and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — in Oromia region. Overall, in Ethiopia, levels of violence decreased last week compared to the previous week.

Protests in Tigray Region

On 22 January, IDPs in Tigray region staged protests in eight towns, including Mekele, Adigrat, Adwa, Shire, Aksum, Sheraro, Kola Tambien, Gulo Mekeda, and Erob. The Protesters demanded that they be able to “return to their villages” and asked for humanitarian assistance, voicing concerns regarding the lack of food and medicine.¹Mulugeta Atsbeha, ‘The displaced people of the Tigray region, who did not receive a response, held a peaceful demonstration again,’ VOA Amharic, 22 January 2024 They also demanded that the Pretoria peace agreement — signed by the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) — be implemented.

The return of IDPs in Tigray region is a particularly difficult issue. The Pretoria peace agreement included an article stating that the government of Ethiopia would “facilitate the return and reintegration of IDPs and refugees, whenever the security situation permits.”²Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) ‘Agreement For Lasting Peace Through A Permanent Cessation Of Hostilities Between The Government Of The Federal Democratic Republic Of Ethiopia And The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF),’ 3 November 2022 As the protesters advocate, there has been very little recorded violence in Tigray since the signing of the agreement in November 2022. However, IDPs are unable to return to some areas in Tigray region as they are defacto being controlled by authorities from Amhara region. Amhara region currently controls areas of Western and Southern Tigray zones. A year after the signing of the agreement, the federal government announced that IDPs from “contested areas” in Tigray region would be returned, and that a referendum would decide the status of these areas.³Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Government Communications Service, ‘Statement of the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Regarding the first anniversary of the signing of the “Agreement For Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities,”’ 6 November 2023 Fano militia — currently fighting the government — and many ethnic Amharas claim that Welkait, Humera, and Tselemt areas in Western Tigray zone and Raya in Southern Tigray zone belong to Amhara region. Due to ongoing insecurity and the preoccupation of ENDF forces in Amhara region, it is unlikely that any referendum to decide on the status of these areas will be taken soon (for more information on the contested territory of Western and Southern Tigray zones, see the EPO Tigray Region page and EPO Weekly: 29 July-4 August 2023).

Clashes in Amhara Region

Armed clashes between Fano militias and the ENDF continued in Amhara region, with battles recorded in North Shewa and North Wello zones last week. The majority of battle events were concentrated in North Shewa zone. However, compared to the previous week, armed clashes in the region decreased by 60% last week. In the past two months, the US, United Kingdom, and European diplomats met with Amhara regional two times and discussed the possibility of peace talks between the regional government and Fano militias.⁴Wazema, ‘New attempts are being made to negotiate the government with the rebels of Oromia and Amhara regions,’ 23 January 2024 The decentralized nature of Fano is a major hurdle towards organizing comprehensive and inclusive talks. Armed clashes between the government forces and Fano militia began in August 2023 (for more details, see EPO Monthly: December 2023; EPO Monthly: August 2023 and EPO Weekly: 29 July-4 August 2023).

Meanwhile, in Wag Hamra zone, the Amhara regional state began deploying civil servants to 12 kebeles in Abergele woreda, which had been under the control of the Agew Democratic Movement (ADM). During the northern Ethiopia conflict, ADM fought alongside TPLF forces and managed to control 17 kebeles in the zone — 12 kebeles in Abergele woreda and five in Tsagibgi woreda. ADM and the Amhara regional government signed a peace agreement on 23 December 2023, stipulating that members of ADM surrender their weapons to the ENDF and that the movement register as a political party. However, according to representatives of the ADM, until demobilization, the ADM forces will remain in charge of the political and security administration of these kebeles.⁵BBC Amharic, ‘The deployment of government workers to the kebeles of Wag Hamra occupied by the armed forces has started,’ 22 January 2024

Conflict Persisted in Oromia Region

In Oromia region, clashes between the OLA/OLF-Shane and government forces continued, with an increased use of drone strikes by the government. Although fighting has been reported in North Shewa zone, last week, most battle events were centered in the southern parts of the region. On 21 January, the ENDF launched three drone strikes against OLA/OLF-Shane positions in Kersana Malima woreda in South West Shewa zone. The next day, an additional two drone strikes were reported in the rural kebeles near Adola town, East Guji zone, resulting in an unidentified number of fatalities. Amid the drone strikes, heavy fighting was also reported on 22 and 23 January in Liben woreda, Guji zone. Republican Guard forces⁶The Republican Guard unit was established after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. This unit’s main duties are to protect the constitutional order and high-level officials and their families. Daniel Mimbere, ‘Photos: ‘Republican Guard’ demonstrates readiness to protect Ethiopia PM,’ Africanews, 23 December 2018 reportedly carried out an operation targeting the OLA/OLF-Shane forces in Fentale woreda in East Shewa zone on 23 January. Last week, the Oromo Liberation Front — a political party from which the OLA/OLF-Shane broke from in April 2019 — denounced the use of airstrikes in Oromia region, accusing the government of “barbarism and recklessness.”⁷Oromo Liberation Front – OLF/ABO, ‘The Irresponsible act of the Army of the Prosperity Party in Oromiya is Tantamount to Crime against Humanity,’ 23 January 2024

In the meantime, on 23 January, the OLA/OLF-Shane militants ambushed kebele militiamen in West Guji zone, killing 12 militias and wounding two others. The attack occurred a few days after the ENDF troops stationed in the area moved out.

Conflict in Oromia region has continued unabated for years despite two rounds of attempts at peace talks that brought together high-ranking members of the OLA/OLF-Shane and the federal government. Following a Prosperity Party Central Committee meeting last week, Oromia regional President Shemelis Abdissa hinted that “the government is ready to continue the peace talks” with the OLA/OLF-Shane.⁸Addis Standard, ‘Oromia State President hints at government readiness to continue stalled peace talks with Oromo Liberation Army,’ 27 January 2024