EPO Weekly Update (12 March 2024)

Situation Summary

Armed clashes continued to escalate between Fano militias and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) in Amhara region, while in Oromia region, Fano militias attacked civilians in border areas of North Shewa zone. Elsewhere, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — made territorial gains against government forces during renewed clashes in West Guji zone.

Clashes Continue to Intensify in Amhara Region

In Amhara region, armed clashes between Fano militias and ENDF troops were reported in East Gojam, West Gojam, South Wello, North Wello, and North Shewa zones. Like the prior week, last week’s clashes were concentrated in West Gojam zone. During ongoing clashes in Shewa Robit town, North Shewa zone, a mortar shell hit a police station, killing four officers and wounding four others. ENDF’s operations against Fano militias in Segno Gebeya and Debre Werk towns in East Gojam zone led to a total of 41 reported fatalities. In Feres Bet town, West Gojam zone, ENDF and Fano militias clashed for four days starting on 3 March, leading to an unspecified number of fatalities. Clashes intensified in this town after government forces regained control of the town following fighting with the militias on 26 February.

Meanwhile, on 5 March, Fano militias reportedly damaged the high power transmission line that stretches from Bahir Dar to Debre Tabor to Nefas Mewcha to Gashena and Alamata towns, causing widespread power outages in the region.¹Amhara Police Commission, ‘It should be understood that any politics that works for the suffering of the people will have no effect,’ 5 March 2024 On 7 March, the Amhara regional government indicated that armed conflict over the past few months in the region had resulted in property loss valued at 15 billion birr — approximately 264 million US dollars.²Addis Standard, ‘News: Recent militarized conflict in Amhara region causes over 15 billion birr in damage,’ 8 March 2024 On the same day, the Communications Director of the International Monetary Fund expressed her concern regarding expanding conflict in Amhara and Oromia regions, labeling the conflicts as “distressing and concerning.”³Ashenafi Endale, ‘“Distressing and concerning”: IMF on conflicts in Amhara, Oromia,’ The Ethiopian Reporter, 9 March 2024 Ethiopia’s international relations, which had been improving since the end of the northern Ethiopia Conflict, could be negatively affected by a widening conflict.

OLA/OLF-Shane’s Territorial Gain in West Guji Zone, Oromia

Last week, fighting between the OLA/OLF-Shane and the ENDF was reported in Arsi, West Guji, Horo Guduru Wollega, South West Shewa, and West Wollega zones. In West Guji zone, on 4 March, the OLA/OLF-Shane forces gained control of Kombolcha, Ejersa, Metar, and Jerim kebeles in Gelana woreda following clashes with the ENDF. As a result, hundreds of civil servants and kebele militias fled from these areas to the neighboring South Ethiopia Peoples region in fear of attacks by the OLA/OLF-Shane militants.⁴Shewangizaw Wegayehu and Eshete Bekele, ‘Eyewitnesses said that hundreds of workers fled from West Guji to Kore zone,’ DW Amharic, 9 March 2024 

On 7 March, Fano militias shot and killed at least nine civilians in Dera woreda, North Shewa zone. Cross-border incursions resulting in violence against civilians, clashes, and destroyed property have occurred frequently in this woreda, which is administered by Oromia region but claimed by both ethnicAmhara and Oromo.⁵Adane Kassie, Tamirat Cheru, Tegegne Sishaw and Wagaw Bogale, ‘Understanding administrative boundary-related conflicts and their challenges in Ethiopia since 1991,’ Cogent Social Sciences, 23 August 2023