Ethiopia situation update (19 March 2025)

In this update covering 1 to 14 March 2025

Tigray forces take local administrations by force
No reprieve in civilian killings in Kore zone, South Ethiopia region
Local officials killed in Amhara region amid ongoing conflict between Fano militias and security forces

100 political violence events

92% increase compared to the last two weeks

19 incidents of violence targeting civilians

58% increase compared to the last two weeks

At least 208 reported fatalities due to political violence

73% increase compared to the last two weeks

ACLED is a living dataset and figures are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Map - Ethiopia situation update (19 March 2025)

Tigray forces take local administrations by force

Two years since the establishment of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray the Tigray region is still facing unrest, as security forces supporting the Debretsion faction forcefully take control of various local administrations in Central and Southeast Tigray zones. Tensions have been brewing since the signing of the Pretoria agreement, which brought an end to the northern Ethiopia conflict between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian government. The interim administration was created in accordance with Article 10 of the Pretoria agreement.¹ According to this agreement, the interim administration should be inclusive and is intended to remain in place until elections are conducted in the region. Since its inception, the interim administration has faced numerous challenges, such as ensuring political inclusivity, security concerns, and internal conflicts. Opposition parties boycotted the conference that established the interim administration, leading to doubts about the transitional administration’s legitimacy.² Consequently, the interim administration is largely composed of members from the TPLF and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF).

The rift within the TPLF, which resulted in two factions — one led by Getachew Reda, the president of the interim regional administration, and the other by Debretsion Gebremichael, the TPLF president — has hindered the interim administration from fulfilling its responsibilities. The internal dispute within the TPLF escalated in January 2025 after two major developments. First, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) issued a statement on 26 December 2024 urging the TPLF to convene its general assembly meeting — a key step in the group’s path to re-registration as a political party — before the 10 February deadline. Second, following this statement, the Debretsion faction ramped up its plan to control the interim administration, and on 23 January, approximately 200 senior leaders from the Tigray forces issued a statement endorsing the resolutions from the 14th general assembly convened by the Debretsion faction and calling for the reorganization of the interim administration to include members from the Debretsion-led TPLF. During this general assembly, the Getachew faction was ousted from TPLF positions and the assembly called for reorganizing the interim administration, replacing the ousted TPLF members with those appointed during the assembly. Accordingly, in mid-February, security forces aligned with the Debretsion faction began working to control local administrations in the Southeast zone when around 30 security forces took the Addis Alem kebele administration’s official seal and clashed with residents who gathered outside the office in protest, injuring at least 17 civilians.

This effort to control the interim administration has escalated. On 10 March, Getachew, as president of the interim administration, sent a letter to the Tigray Peace and Security Bureau, dismissing three top TDF generals after accusing them of inciting violence among the youth and security forces.³ The Tigray Peace and Security Bureau and the TPLF faction led by Debretsion rejected the decision. The bureau said Getachew had acted beyond his power by attempting to remove the generals unilaterally,⁴ while the Debretsion faction accused Getachew of attempting to weaken the TDF.⁵ Consequently, on 11 March, Getachew dismissed the head of the bureau — who is also a general — for failing to implement the administration’s decision against the three generals.

Debretsion-aligned TDF members take control of administrative offices

In the meantime, members of the TDF who support the Debretsion faction continued confiscating the stamps of various local officials and seizing control of administrative offices. On 11 March, around 44 members of the TDF forcefully took control of the stamps and administration office of Adi Gudem town in the Southeast Tigray zone. They also abducted around seven local officials, including the mayor and his deputy. The security forces also shot and injured at least four civilians who were among those gathered at the office to oppose the security forces’ actions. The next day, on 12 March, members of the TDF conducted house-to-house searches and abducted an unspecified number of residents, prevented civil servants from entering their office, and established various checkpoints. They also dispersed protestors on 12 March who gathered to oppose the takeover. This forceful takeover was not limited to Adi Gudem town. Members of the TDF also took the stamps of Hagere Selam town and Degua Tenbey, Samre, and Saharti woredas in the Southeast zone.

The security forces and the mayors of Mekele and Adigrat and the Debretsion faction-appointed East Tigray zone administrator also took over their respective offices. The Mekele mayor’s office was closed for over 100 days due to a dispute over the two mayors, one appointed by the interim administration and another appointed by the Debretsion-sympathetic Mekele city council.⁶ The security forces also established various checkpoints across these cities, took control of the Mekele FM 104.4 radio station, and reinstated boards appointed by the Debretsion faction. The security forces’ first attempt to control the radio station on 30 January failed, as the employees blocked them from entering the building.

Getachew accuses security forces who support Debretsion of overthrowing the interim government

Getachew accused the TDF commanders of attempting to overthrow the interim administration by allying with the Debretsion faction and admitted that the interim government had lost control of the Central and Southeast zones of Tigray.⁷ One report indicated that, other than in the South Tigray zone, local administrations are now controlled by the Debretsion faction.⁸ The president also accused some members of the Debretsion faction and TDF leaders of colluding with the Eritreans to initiate a war between the Eritrean and Ethiopian governments.⁹ He did not yet name these leaders. The relationship between the two governments deteriorated after the Ethiopian government signed the Pretoria peace agreement. On 13 March, the Eritrean minister of information stated that the Eritrean government has no interest in interfering with the peace agreement and the TPLF internal conflict.¹⁰

To avoid further violence, Getachew indirectly invited the federal government to intervene.¹¹ The federal government can only intervene in regional issues after an official invitation from the regional government indicating its inability to maintain stability in the region. The Debretsion faction rejected the call for intervention, warning that such involvement posed a “serious threat” to the Pretoria peace agreement and insisting that security forces are conducting law enforcement operations to reinstate officials appointed by local councils.¹²

Various members of the international community, including the European Union, African Union, and the US Embassy, stated their concern over the recent developments in Tigray, calling on each side to resolve their differences through dialogue.¹³ For the first time, the federal government accused one of the TPLF factions of having contact with a foreign force, without specifying,¹⁴ and trying to initiate violence in the region by removing the interim administration during a briefing to foreign diplomats with Getachew. Many civilians are leaving the Tigray region, withdrawing cash and buying basic needs in bulk in fear of another round of violence.¹⁵

Tigray remains in turmoil

Though it has been two years since the interim administration was formed and the peace agreement was signed, the Tigray region continues to experience turmoil and is still not ready to conduct elections to create a regional government. The peace agreement was originally intended for the interim administration to last between six months to one year, with the expectation of elections occurring within that year. On 13 February, the NEBE suspended the TPLF for three months from being involved in any political activity until it holds the general assembly as per the requirements of the election board.¹⁶ The NEBE stipulated that it must be informed at least 21 days prior to the general assembly to ensure board members could attend to monitor proceedings. Meanwhile, the Debretsion faction stated that this decision “has no legal significance” as the party never applied to be registered as a new party.¹⁷ This statement defies the content of the peace agreement, which required the TPLF to respect and abide by the country’s rules and regulations.

No reprieve in civilian killings in Kore zone, South Ethiopia region

At least three civilians were killed in the Kore (also known as Amaro) zone in the South Ethiopia region due to an ongoing border dispute with the neighboring Gelana woreda of Guji zone in the Oromia region. According to the government and witnesses, on 8 March, suspected militants of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — who came from the neighboring Gelana woreda shot two people dead while they were herding cattle. They also injured another woman in Jello kebele in Gorka woreda in the Kore zone. The OLA/OLF-Shane denied it had shot the herders, saying its forces do not attack civilians and that such attacks were coordinated by the government with the aim of turning the population against the group.¹⁸ Additionally, according to one Kore People’s Regional Council representative, one of the herders and the injured woman were shot by intoxicated Ethiopian National Defense Force members.¹⁹ A few days later, on 12 March, suspected OLA/OLF-Shane militants from the neighboring Gelana woreda shot and killed a farmer while he was working on a farm with his family in Dano Tulto Kebele Gorka woreda. The Kore zone of the South Ethiopia region and the Guji zone of the Oromia region have been disputing territorial control for decades.²⁰ Since the start of 2025, ACLED records four attacks against civilians by the OLA/OLF-Shane.

Local officials killed in Amhara region amid ongoing conflict between Fano militias and security forces

On 11 March, members of Fano militias ambushed and killed three people — the head of the Werebabo woreda administration, the head of the woreda police criminal investigation division, and their driver — at an unspecified location in Werebabu woreda in South Wello zone. The victims were conducting fieldwork at the time of the attack. From 1 to 14 March, ACLED records 75 political violence events in the region — 95% of the armed clashes between Fano militias and security forces. The conflict between Fano militias and the government is affecting the daily activities of civilians. For example, on 5 March, an unidentified armed group abducted two truck drivers and their assistants in the Ergoye area in the Central Gondar zone.