Situation Summary

Last week in Ethiopia, violence against civilians amid armed clashes between Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) were reported in Amhara region. Meanwhile, a transportation strike declared by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane —  led to clashes and additional violence against civilians in Oromia region. Protests also continued in Tigray region.

Violence Against Civilians in Amhara Region

Armed clashes continued in Amhara region, with fighting between Fano militia and government forces occurring in South Wello and West Gojam zones. Intense clashes were reported in Merawi town, which resulted in damage to two Orthodox churches and an unknown number of fatalities among combatants. Following the clash, ENDF forces, along with associated Amhara state police and kebele militias, shot and killed at least 50 civilians. 

Violence against civilians by state-affiliated forces has been a consistent problem for the Ethiopian government. The number of fatalities in Merawi town is the highest recorded civilian fatality incident since the conflict between Fano militia and the government began in Amhara region in April 2023. Similar high-fatality incidents involving both government forces and anti-government insurgent groups have become frequent in Ethiopia since Abiy came to power (for more, see the EPO Monthly: June 2023). High-fatality incidents of violence against civilians were also common during the northern Ethiopia conflict between November 2020 to November 2022.¹Katharine Houreld, Meg Kelly and Stefanie Le, ‘Hundreds massacred in Ethiopia even as peace deal was being reached,’ Washington Post, 1 March 2023 

On 2 February, the House of People’s Representatives voted to extend the state of emergency declared in Amhara region by an additional four months.²Addis Standard, ‘News: Parliament endorses extension of State of Emergency in Amhara region,’ 2 February 2024 The state of emergency was first declared in August 2023 after the Amhara regional government asked the federal government to take all necessary measures, as the insecurity in the region went beyond the control of the regional security forces (for more, see the EPO Weekly: 2-8 September 2023 and the EPO Weekly: 29 July-4 August 2023). 

Enforced Transport Strike in Oromia Region

A transport strike declared by the OLA/OLF-Shane led to a reported reduction in traffic throughout Oromia region.³Addis Standard, ‘News: Calls for transport and market strike in Oromia hampers mobility, regional gov’t blames OLA,’ 30 January 2024 Strike enforcement, carried out by the militants, led to attacks on drivers who were accused of not abiding by the transport strike in Guji and South West Shewa zones. In Kersana Malima woreda, South West Shewa zone, Republican Guard forces⁴The Republican Guard unit was established after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. This unit’s main duties are to protect the constitutional order and high-level officials and their families. Daniel Mimbere, ‘Photos: ‘Republican Guard’ demonstrates readiness to protect Ethiopia PM,’ Africanews, 23 December 2018 claimed to have thwarted an attack on transport vehicles by the OLA/OLF-Shane forces by clashing with the group. 

Enforced transportation strikes have been used by the OLA/OLF-Shane periodically in order to pressure the government. Most recently, a strike had been declared during the Ethiopian Christmas holiday in January. The move could be a signal that the OLA/OLF-Shane is trying to pressure the government and position itself better for upcoming peace talks. Additional peace talks could occur soon, as hinted by the Oromia regional state president a couple of weeks prior. Transportation strikes were a key tool used by the Qeerroo youth in Oromia region in the 2014-2018 demonstrations, which led to the appointment of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in April 2018. Many members of the Qeeroo youth movement have now joined the OLA/OLF-Shane group. 

Continued Protests in Tigray Region

Former members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces — Tigray Defense Force (TDF) — held a protest in the capital city of Tigray region, Mekele, asking the transitional government of Tigray representatives to take better care of the former soldiers by providing medical support. A week prior to this protest, internally displaced persons held a protest in eight towns of Tigray region. Protests have become more common in the region over the past few months, with most demonstrations involving internally displaced people or former TPLF/TDF fighters. While the protests appear to be well-contained at the moment, widespread dissatisfaction with the transitional government of Tigray could lead to wider disorder and violence in the region.