Situation Summary

Last week in Ethiopia, clashes between Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) continued in Amhara region. Armed clashes between the ENDF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — militants also persisted in Oromia region, although fighting has been gradually reducing for months. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government has reacted to harsh criticism from several national and international entities regarding a high fatality due to civilian targeting by government forces in Merawi town, Amhara region, that occurred at the end of January. In Tigray region, Amhara and Tigray ethnic militias clashed for two days in disputed areas of Southern Tigray zone. This clash could become more serious if the escalation continues, jeopardizing the peace achieved through the 2022 Pretoria agreement — signed between the government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Clashes and International Attention in Amhara Region

Armed clashes between Fano militia and government forces continued in Amhara region, with fighting recorded in ​​North Wello, South Wello, North Shewa, and West Gojam zones. Though fighting has reduced since August 2023, it has persisted, with violence reaching major towns. On 13 February, a report by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission confirmed that on 29 January, at least 45 civilians had been shot and killed by government forces in the town of Merawi following clashes with Fano militias.¹Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, ‘The continuing armed conflict and extrajudicial killings of civilians in the Amhara region is a concern,’ 13 February 2024 Some international organizations and governments, including the EU and US embassies, have expressed concern over the killings.²US Embassy Addis Ababa, ‘The US government is deeply concerned by reports of targeted civilian killings in the town of Merawi in Amhara regional state,’  8 February 2024; Delegation of the European Union to Ethiopia, ‘Ethiopia: Statement by the Spokesperson on the latest developments in Amhara,’ 13 February 2024 An Ethiopian government spokesperson denied that the government extrajudicially killed civilians, stating that security forces had “defended themselves” during an attack by Fano militias on a military camp near the town.³Solomon Muche and Eshete Bekele, ‘Dr. Leges Tulu said, ‘The defense forces did not target any kind of civilian in Marawi city,’ DW Amharic, 14 February 2024 The government later announced that the State of Emergency Investigation Board would investigate the incident but stated that access was complicated due to ongoing security issues in the area.⁴BBC Amharic, ‘The Emergency Investigation Board is going to investigate the killings’, 16 February 2024

Civilian targeting by government forces in Merawi comes at a critical time for Ethiopia’s international relations. In November 2023, Ethiopia’s relationship appeared to improve after the northern conflict ended in 2022. The memorandum of understanding signed with Somaliland providing Ethiopia in January raised more than a few eyebrows among the international community. The incident in Merawi is likely to draw additional international condemnation. 

Continued Violence in Oromia Region

Clashes persisted in Oromia region, with fighting between the OLA/OLF-Shane and ENDF forces reported in North Shewa, Guji, East Shewa, West Guji, Kellem Wollega, and East Wollega zones. ENDF indicated it is taking operations against the OLA/OLF-Shane forces in the latter four zones.⁵Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) Defense Force, ‘Gemeda Dugo or Long, who was in charge of the logistics and political sector of the OLF-Shane in East Guji Zone, surrendered,’ 16 February 2024; FDRE Defense Force, ‘The main leaders of the terrorist group were hit by the action taken by Mebirake Brigade,’ 15 February 2024; FDRE Defense Force, ‘It was stated that the OLF-Shane was rendered useless due to action taken against the terrorist group in Watra and Birnkas towns in Jano Gure kebele of East Wollega zone’ 15 February 2024 Following the armed clash in North Shewa zone, there were reports of extrajudicial killing of civilians by security forces.⁶Tsehay Dimtaw, ‘People were killed in the ongoing conflict in the Northern Shewa zone,’ VOA Amharic, 16 February 2024

In the meantime, on 19 February, the Oromia regional council — Caffee Oromia — voted to remove the immunity of the former State Minister of Peace, Taye Dandea.⁷Addis Standard, ‘Caffee Oromia Revokes Legal Immunity of Former State Minister Taye Dendaa’, 19 February 2024 He was dismissed from his position in December 2023 after criticizing the government for banning anti-war protests and then was arrested under charges of collaborating with anti-peace forces.

Armed clashes in Disputed Territories of Tigray Region

In Tigray region, on 14 and 15 February, Tigray ethnic militias clashed with Amhara ethnic militias near Korem town as well as in Chercher, Raya Alamata, and Raya Bala woredas, prompting the ENDF to intervene and de-escalate. This clash erupted a day after the president of the Transitional Government of Tigray indicated that the Tigray forces — which, according to the president, are over 270,000 — were not disarmed as per the Pretoria agreement.⁸VOA Amharic, ‘Getachew Reda: There is still mistrust between the federal and the Tigray region,’ 13 February 2024 While no fatalities were reported in last week’s confrontation and clashes were short, violence in this area is significant, with the potential to spread to other locations. These areas are located in Southern Tigray zone and are officially under Tigray region but have been de facto in control of the Amhara regional government since the beginning of the northern Ethiopia conflict in November 2020.

The federal government announced in November 2023 that a referendum would decide the status of the disputed territories in Tigray region following the return of internally displaced persons.⁹Addis Standard, ‘News: Referendum in Western Tigray not feasible amidst demographic changes, persistent displacement: Tigray interim admin,’ 13 February 2024 The Tigray regional authorities oppose this plan, while Amhara ethno-nationalist organizations like Fano militias have stated their willingness to violently prevent the disputed areas from being administered by Tigray authorities. Disputed areas, in addition to Raya-Alamata in Southern Tigray zone, also include Welkait, Tselemt, Tsegede, and Kafta-Humera in Western Tigray zone.