Situation summary
A fissure among top Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) members widened last week, threatening further destabilization in Tigray region. Meanwhile, clashes and violence targeting civilians were reported in Amhara region.
TPLF’s request to be reinstated as a party rejected
On 9 August, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) rejected the TPLF’s request to reinstate its legal status as a party, instead registering the TPLF as a party under a “special condition.”1National Election Board of Ethiopia NEBE, ‘A statement from the National Election Board of Ethiopia regarding the legal status of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF),’ 9 August 2024 According to the NEBE, reinstatement was not possible due to legal barriers that prevent reinstating a party that had engaged in acts of violence.2Sisay Sehlu, ‘The TPLF’s request to return to its legal status was filed under special circumstances,’ The Reporter, 11 August 2024 As the request to reinstate the party’s status to that prior to the northern Ethiopia conflict was rejected, the NEBE stated that the TPLF is required to hold a general assembly, elect new leadership, and approve party bylaws within the next six months in order to finalize the registration process.3National Election Board of Ethiopia NEBE, ‘A statement from the National Election Board of Ethiopia regarding the legal status of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF),’ 9 August 2024 The NEBE further stipulated that it must be informed at least 21 days prior to the general assembly to ensure the participation of board members and the adherence to regulations.
The rejection exposed a widening fissure within the TPLF party, which last manifested in October 2023 during a TPLF party conference. Factions of the former TPLF in Tigray include, on one side, TPLF party chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, who rejects the NEBE’s decision and argues that the TPLF’s legal status should be reinstated. Debretsion asked the federal government to intervene as per the Pretoria agreement.4BBC Amharic, ‘TPLF announced that it will not accept being registered by the Election Board under “special conditions”,’ 11 August 2024; Weldeslassie Hailai Abera, ‘Op-ed: Echoes of Mekelle: TPLF factions and the quest for legitimacy after Tigray War,’ Addis Standard, 12 August 2024 The federal government responded by indicating that it has done its part by removing the TPLF’s designation as a terrorist organization and stressed that the organization respects the country’s rule of law as per the agreement.5Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Government Communication Service, ‘The starting point and destination of the Pretoria agreement is to respect the constitution and constitutional institutions!,’ 12 August 2024 Nevertheless, this faction began the party’s 14th general assembly on 13 August, despite the NEBE and Prime Minister Abiy’s warnings that the TPLF not hold a conference without following the stipulated requirements of its registration under ‘special condition.’6Facebook @DWAmharic, 13 August 2024; NEBE, ‘Letter written by the National Election Board of Ethiopia to TPLF after it was announced by the media that the party will hold its general assembly,’ 1 August 2024; BBC Amharic, ‘Prime Minister Abiy warned the TPLF not to hold a conference without regaining its legal status,’ 24 July 2024
On the other side of the TPLF faction is Getachew Reda — head of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray — who desires to reform the party and work closely with the federal government.7Weldeslassie Hailai Abera, ‘Op-ed: Echoes of Mekelle: TPLF factions and the quest for legitimacy after Tigray War,’ Addis Standard, 12 August 2024 Getachew and 14 additional members of the Central Committee boycotted the TPLF party’s 14th general assembly as a result of the split, declaring that the meeting had been called “in haste” and aimed to remove certain party members.8X @reda_getachew, 13 August 2024 This internal dispute may create another round of instability in Tigray region. The Vice President of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray, General Tadese Worede, restricted holding any protests in support of or against these two factions.9Yohanes Geberegziabher and Lidet Abebe, ‘12 July 2024 world news,’ DW Amharic, 12 July 2024
Clashes and violence targeting civilians in Amhara region
In Amhara region, clashes continued between the Ethiopian National Defense Force and Fano militias, with fighting reported in Awi, East Gojam, West Gojam, North Shewa, North Wello, and South Gondar zones. In Debre Tabor, a large city in South Gondar zone along the B22 highway, clashes lasted for three days, beginning on 3 August and continuing until 6 August.
ACLED also records violence targeting civilians in Amhara region. Last week, a humanitarian worker was kidnapped for ransom and later killed by an unidentified armed group in Dawunt woreda, North Wello zone.10Relief Web, ‘Statement on the Killing of a Humanitarian Worker in the Amhara Region,’ 14 August 2024 On 3 August, unidentified armed men shot and injured Sudanese refugees near the Awlala Akushara camp in West Gondar zone. The targeting of refugees by unidentified armed groups has been a rising problem in the region. In May, thousands of refugees left a refugee camp in protest of poor security conditions.
Ethiopia at a Glance
3-9 August 2024
The data cover the period from 3 to 9 August 2024. For more information about how ACLED collects data and categorizes events, see the ACLED Codebook. Some events from this coverage period might be included in the data in subsequent weeks due to reporting delays.
Political Violence Events11This includes the Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types, as well as the Mob violence sub-event type of the Riots event type.: 69
+81% from previous week
Demonstration Events12This includes the Protests event type as well as the Violent demonstrations sub-event type of the Riots event type.: 0
-100% from previous week
Event Types
Battles: 60 Events
Explosions/Remote Violence: 0 Event
Violence Against Civilians: 9 Events
Mob Violence: 0 Event
Protests: 0 Event
Violent Demonstrations: 0 Event