Ethiopia Weekly Update (15 October 2024)

Situation summary

Despite clashes in several locations, roads were reopened in Amhara region after Fano militias announced a closure a week earlier. Meanwhile, the Oromia regional president indicated the possibility of renewed peace talks involving a newly formed faction of the  Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane.

Roads reopen despite clashes in Amhara region

Transport services in most areas of Amhara region resumed last week,¹Facebook @DW.Amharic, ‘Continuation of transport services in the Amhara region,’ 11 October 2024 following a week of interrupted services after Fano militias announced a road closure across the region.²Abebe Fikir, ‘Residents expressed their displeasure due to the suspension of transport services in some areas of the Amhara region,’ The Reporter, 6 October 2024 Despite an improvement in transportation, clashes persisted throughout the week, with fighting between Fano militias and security forces reported in North Shewa, West Gojam, and East Gojam zones. Clashes were especially intense in Feres Bet town in West Gojam zone and Mota town in East Gojam zone, where multiple consecutive days of clashes were reported. These clashes were linked to the announcement by the Amhara regional government and the Ethiopian National Defense Force on 2 October that intensified military action would be taken against the Fano militias and their supporters.³Facebook @AmharaMediaCorporation, ‘A joint statement from the government of Amhara region and the national defense force,’ 2 October 2024 This announcement was made after reports of hundreds of arrests by security forces in the region emerged. 

The prolonged conflict in the region is negatively affecting the lives of civilians. For example, last week, the Amhara regional government announced that school enrollment, which was expected to reach seven million students, only turned out two million, as most students have not been enrolled as a result of the conflict.⁴Dagem Adane and Tsehay Chane, ‘How to treat a transgenerational crisis that has darkened the hope of learning;?’ DW Amharic, 8 October 2024

A revival of peace talks in Oromia region

On 10 October, the Oromia Regional President Shimelis Abdisa indicated the possibility of  peace talks between the regional government and the OLA/OLF-Shane central command led by Jal Sanyi Nagasa, which recently separated itself from the main OLA/OLF-Shane leadership.⁵Facebook @shimelisAbdisaOfficial, ‘The government’s outreached hand of peace will not be retracted today,‘ 10 October 2024 In the announcement, President Shimelis reiterated the government’s willingness to solve the conflict in Oromia peacefully and committed to rehabilitation and integration of militants currently associated with the group. 

The feasibility of peace talks with the OLA/OLF-Shane has been low since the failure of two rounds of peace talks in May and November 2023, despite the involvement of top officials from both the federal government and OLA/OLF-Shane. After the end of the first round of peace talks in May 2023, political violence involving OLA/OLF-Shane has been highest in North Shewa zone, with most political violence recorded in Dera woreda. The area is home to a complicated mix of armed groups, and civilians are often caught in the crossfire between armed groups and security forces. Successful peace talks could lead to a major reduction of violence in Oromia region. However, despite government officials’ optimism, OLA/OLF-Shane’s official public relations office denied that commander Jal Sanyi Nagasa had split from leadership as he had been dismissed from the group’s leadership several months earlier.⁶Addis Standard, ‘News: OLA denies split following reports of Central Zone Command defection,’ 30 September 2024