Ethiopia Weekly Update (12 November 2024)

Situation summary

Airstrikes and battles in Amhara region led to an increase in civilian fatalities during the week, including the single most deadly airstrike since the conflict in region began in April 2023. At the same time, the internal dispute within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) continues to escalate, with the interim government accusing the Debretsion faction of taking actions that are tantamount to a coup d’état.

Civilian fatalities rise in Amhara region amid airstrikes

In Amhara region, civilian casualties rose during the week as a result of airstrikes and targeted killings by the  Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) following clashes with Fano militias. 

On 5 November, multiple airstrikes hit a marketplace, an elementary school, and a health center in Zibist (Arge) town in Debub Achefer woreda, West Gojam zone, resulting in at least 43 reported fatalities and marking the most deadly airstrike incident since the conflict in Amhara region began. Thirteen children and several pregnant women, including health workers, were among those killed.¹BBC Amharic, ‘Eyewitnesses said that 50 people, including pregnant women, were killed in a drone attack in North Gojam,’ 8 November 2024 A second airstrike was reported on the same day during clashes between Fano militias and ENDF forces in Durbete, Debub Achefer woreda. The strike resulted in 19 reported fatalities including 16 Fano militia members and three civilians. 

Airstrikes have been a key part of the government’s strategy to combat anti-government militias since it acquired new drone technology during the latter half of the northern Ethiopia conflict. Drone strikes in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray regions since 2022 have commonly resulted in civilian casualties and drawn criticism from the international community.²Fred Harter, ‘Horrific civilian toll as Ethiopia turns to combat drones to quell local insurgencies,’ The New Humanitarian, 5 March 2024 ACLED records 50 airstrikes resulting in an estimated 431 reported fatalities since the conflict in Amhara region began — likely a low estimate given the difficulties in reporting drone strikes that occur in remote locations of the country. Prior to the strikes in Zibist last week, the most deadly drone strike occurred in February 2024, when a government airstrike on a truck in Mojan Wedera woreda, North Shewa zone, reportedly killed 30 people and injured 15 others. At the end of October, the Amhara-nationalist Amhara Association of America published a report detailing 43 suspected strikes across 22 woredas in Amhara region between 25 September and 24 October.³Amhara Association of America, ‘Summary of recent recorded drone and air strikes in Amhara Region, Ethiopia,’ 30 October 2024 This report has not yet been confirmed by a third party.

At the same time, clashes between Fano militias and the ENDF continued, with active fighting recorded in Awi, Central Gondar, East Gojam, West Gojam, North Wello, and South Wello zones. After the ENDF and Amhara regional authorities vowed to intensify operations targeting Fano militias at the beginning of October, battles intensified — the period between 1 October and 8 November saw around 30% more battles than the previous six-week period. Fano militias have also continued to target local officials. On 10 November, suspected members of Fano militias opened fire at a hotel in Kobo town targeting government officials, killing the head of the Prosperity Party office in the town and wounding the head of the town’s land registration office and two other civilians.⁴Addis Standard, ‘News: Kobo town Prosperity Party secretary killed amid rising attacks on local officials in Amhara region,’ 11 November 2024

The internal TPLF rift widens in Tigray

The internal rift between the factions of the TPLF —  one led by Debretsion Gebremichael, the current chairman of the TPLF, and the other by Getachew Reda, the federally appointed president of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray — continues to escalate. On 10 November, the interim administration accused the Debretsion faction of escalating “their actions from obstructing local government operations to attempting a coup d’état.”⁵The Reporter, ‘The group “moved to carry out an official coup,” Interim regional administration of Tigray,’  10 November 2024 The accusations included claims that the Debretsion faction was disseminating false information suggesting that the leaders of the Tigray armed forces were aligned with their group and that they were nearing control of the regional government.⁶BBC Amharic, ‘What are the events called as coup and disorder in Tigray?,’ 12 November 2024 According to the administrator of the Central zone, five unidentified members of the regional militia, police, and security officers forbade the zone’s registrar’s office in Aksum town from using the interim government’s stamp. When the registrar officer refused to comply, the security forces “abducted” her and took her to Adwa town, the Central zone administrator said, adding that her exact location remains unknown.⁷BBC Amharic, ‘What are the events called as coup and disorder in Tigray?,’ 12 November 2024 

In October, the Debretsion faction replaced the mayor of Mekele with one of its own members. This action was subsequently approved by Mekele’s city council, resulting in the removal of the interim government-appointed mayor. Getachew has resisted this new appointment and instructed civil servants to disregard the decisions made and tasks assigned by the new mayor.⁸Mulgeta Atsbeha, ‘The controversial Mekele mayor’s case is said to be discussed at the city council,’ VOA Amharic, 30 October 2024 However, the Mekele council has disregarded these instructions, asserting that the interim government lacks authority over the council. They claim that the Pretoria agreement — signed between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government — dissolved only regional and zonal councils and did not affect the city council, which was elected before September 2020, making the capital city out of the interim government’s control⁹BBC Amharic, ‘What are the events called as coup and disorder in Tigray?,’ 12 November 2024; Mulgeta Atsbeha, ‘The council decided to allow the suspended new mayor of Mekele to continue his work,’ VOA Amharic, 31 October 2024; Lewam Ataklti, ‘“According to the Pretoria Agreement, only the Tigray Regional Council and the regional cabinet were dissolved” Mekele City Council,’ The Reporter, 30 October 2024 (for details on the internal rift within TPLF, read the October 2024 EPO Monthly report). 

Meanwhile, a new movement focused on ousting the TPLF called Tintag Weledo Tigray has reportedly formed in the region. This group includes a diverse range of individuals in Tigray and outside the country, allegedly including members of the Tigray Defense Force. The group has declared that it does not intend to displace the interim government until a newly elected government is established. It also cautioned that if any actions are taken against its members, it will respond, though it did not specify how.¹⁰YouTube @ethiopiareporter, ‘The new movement started in Tigray,’ 8 November 2024