EPO Weekly Update (7 May 2024)

Situation Summary

Insecurity continued in Amhara region, sparking protests by Sudanese refugees along Ethiopia’s western border. Meanwhile, tensions between Tigray and Amhara regions continued to rise in contested territories. Government operations targeting insurgents in Oromia also intensified.

Insecurity in Amhara Region

In Amhara region, battles between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and Fano militias slowed compared to the previous weeks, with clashes reported in North Shewa and North Wello zones. On 30 April, suspected Fano militias killed three civilians, including the Lasta woreda administrator and Health Bureau head, as they were traveling from Woldiya to Lalibela towns after attending a meeting. Assassinations targeting local officials in the region have been a key strategy Fano militias have employed since the insurgency began in April 2023. Lasta woreda, the capital of which is the culturally important town of Lalibela, has been the site of political violence in several iterations over the past few years. In early November 2023, the town was briefly controlled by Fano militias, prompting heavy weapons to be fired near historical churches. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front controlled Lalibela in August 2021 during the northern conflict, sustaining damage to hotels and the airport during the war. 

Meanwhile, thousands of Sudanese refugees left Kumer and Awlala camps in West Gondar zone after demonstrating against insecurity and demanding improved conditions following a number of armed robberies and abductions targeting refugees. At least one person was shot and seriously injured by unidentified criminal elements in the days leading up to the protest. On 1 May, at least 1,000 refugees left Kumer camp over fears for their safety.¹Giulia Paravicini, ‘Sudanese refugees flee UN camp in Ethiopia following attacks,’ Reuters, 3 May 2024

Tensions Rise in Tigray Region

Last week, the Interim Administration of Tigray vice president stated that Tigrayan officials and the federal government had agreed to finalize plans to return internally displaced people from Raya and Tselemte areas by 7 June and those displaced from Welkait area by 7 July.²Million Haileselase and Yohanes Gebreigziabher, ‘The return of refugees from Tigray,’ DW Amharic, 1 May 2024; Reuters, ‘Ethiopia’s Amhara militia says resettlement plan ‘beats war drum,’ Reuters, 3 May 2024 

The current de facto administration officials of the Raya Alamata woreda responded to the announced agreement, calling it one-sided propaganda.³Mesfin Arage, ‘The administration’s response to the declaration of “disputed” border areas in the Tigray region,’ VOA Amharic, 3 May 2024 Local officials in Raya and in Welkait were appointed by Amhara region, which has been in control of the area since the start of the northern Ethiopia conflict in November 2020. These officials consider the ownership of this area as a non-negotiable⁴Welkait Tegede S/Humera Prosperity Party, ‘10-Point Statement by the Amhara People of Welkait-Tegede,’ 17 June 2021 and reject the federal government’s proposed referendum (for more details on contested territories between Amhara and Tigray regions, see the EPO Monthly: February 2024). The federal government has not yet confirmed or denied the Tigray regional officials’ statement on the agreement.

Intensified Anti-insurgency Efforts in Oromia Region

The government’s military operations targeting the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — intensified for a second week, with clashes between the two actors reported in East Wollega, Horo Guduru Wollega, West Shewa, and East Borena zones. 

Around 2 May, the ENDF, in a joint military operation with the regional security forces, clashed with OLA/OLF-Shane in East Borena zone. The ENDF claimed to have killed and wounded over 200 OLA/OLF-Shane fighters and captured 16 others.⁵Oromia Communication Bureau, ‘Peace is the base of all things,’ 2 May 2024 The reported casualties could not be independently verified. Similarly, the government reported clashes between the ENDF and OLA/OLF-Shane fighters on 30 April in Bila, East Wollega zone, that reportedly led to 27 fatalities.⁶Oromia Communication Bureau, ‘Ensuring the rule of law continues to be strengthened,’ 30 April 2024