EPO Weekly Update (14 May 2024)

Situation Summary

Last week in Ethiopia, armed clashes were reported in Amhara region, with civilians wounded in the crossfire. Elsewhere, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited a key town in west Oromia, and an attack against civilians was reported in Gambela region.

Civilians in Amhara injured in ENDF-Fano crossfire

In Amhara region, battles between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and Fano militias were reported in South Wello, North Wello, North Shewa, and West Gojam zones. In North Wello zone, a number of civilians who were traveling from Dessie town to Woldiya town were wounded in a crossfire during clashes between Fano militias and the ENDF troops along the road.¹VOA Amharic, ‘Residents said that passengers traveling in the middle of the conflict were injured in the North Wollo zone,’ 10 May 2024 This road — the A2 highway — was closed by security forces from late February to mid-April due to insecurity. 

Clashes between the government and Fano militias have been ongoing across Amhara region since April 2023 (for more, see the EPO Monthly: April 2023 and EPO Monthly: August 2023). On 13 May, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed asked armed groups in Amhara region to find peaceful solutions.²Ethiopia Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s (Dr.) speech at the inauguration of the new Abay River Bridge in Bahir Dar city,’ 12 May 2024 In April, the National Dialogue Commission called on armed groups to participate in the dialogue, offering guarantees of protection for participating representatives.³Shawangezew Wagayehu and Eshete Bekele, ‘The National Dialogue Commission’s Call,’ DW Amharic,  20 April 2024 Last week, a Fano representative from Gojam indicated that it had not been officially invited and that it would not participate due to the government’s heavy influence over the Commission.⁴VOA Amharic, ‘The Oromo Liberation Army and the Amhara Fano said, “We have not been called for peace,’ 8 May 2024 The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — has likewise indicated that it was not officially invited and will not participate. The Commission admitted that it has not sent an official invitation, citing difficulties in locating the armed groups.⁵VOA Amharic, ‘The Oromo Liberation Army and the Amhara Fano said, “We have not been called for peace,’ 8 May 2024

Abiy Visits Nekemte

On 8 May, Prime Minister Abiy, along with the deputy prime minister and the Oromia regional state president, attended a pro-government rally in Nekemte town, East Wollega zone. Among other things, while addressing the crowd, Abiy noted that the area was lagging behind in development due to insecurity.⁶BBC Amharic, ‘”Oromo has been freed; Yesterday we fought and won with our blood” – Prime Minister Abiy in Wollega,’ 8 May 2024  

Despite widespread insecurity due to the ongoing OLA/OLF-Shane insurgency, Oromia region remains a power base for the government. As Abiy begins his seventh year in the premiership, it is likely that he will attempt to expand this base and solidify support in Oromia — his home region⁷Abiy Ahmed was born in Beshasha town in Jimma zone, Oromia. Before becoming the prime minister, he was a member of the Oromia regional council. — including west Oromia, where Oromo ethno-nationalist movements like the Oromo Liberation Front party and the OLA/OLF-Shane have a strong presence. Clashes associated with the government’s operations against the OLA/OLF-Shane have been reported since April. Last week, government sources indicated that military operations against the militant group were held in East Shewa, West Shewa, Horo Guduru Wollega, East Wollega, and West Wollega zones.

Violence Against Civilians in Gambela Region

On 5 May, unidentified armed gunmen attacked a public bus near Abol town in Gambela Zuria woreda, Gambela region, resulting in several injuries, including among state police officers who were escorting the bus. The bus was traveling from Itang special woreda to Gambela town. Gambela region was one of the more peaceful locations in Ethiopia for some time. However, violence connected to communal disputes and border incursions from South Sudan has been increasing over the past year.