Ethiopia Weekly Update (24 September 2024)

Situation summary

Last week, violence increased compared to the previous week, with intensified clashes between Fano militias and government forces reported in North and Central Gondar zones of Amhara region. Meanwhile, an internal fissure among factions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) continued to intensify, threatening to escalate to violence.

Clashes reignite in major towns in western Amhara

In Amhara region, fighting between Fano militias and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) continued unabated, with clashes reigniting in a number of major towns in western Amhara last week. On 16 and 17 September, allied ENDF, Amhara state police, and kebele militias clashed with Fano militias in and around Gondar town, and in Debark, Debat, Amba Giorgis, and Azezo towns located along the B30 highway in North and Central Gondar zones. In many areas, Fano militias briefly took control of key positions before being pushed back by security forces. Fighting in urban areas resulted in several reported civilian fatalities and caused a short interruption in transportation services.¹

Meanwhile, armed actors continued to target civilians in Amhara region. On 18 September, suspected Fano militias reportedly killed two teachers in Senan woreda, East Gojam zone, after accusing them of registering children for school, in defiance of an order the militias had issued. A Fano representative denied involvement in the killing but confirmed that Fano militias oppose children attending school in the area due to ongoing hostilities.² Violence targeting civilians, including children, teachers, refugees, officials, and civil servants, has had a major impact on quality of life in Amhara region. According to ACLED’s Conflict Exposure Calculator, over 7 million people have been exposed to conflict since the beginning of the Fano insurgency in April 2023. Millions of students are out of school due to conflict, which contributed to poor test scores on the national Ethiopian School Leaving Certificate Examination among high school students in the region.³

Tensions build between TPLF factions in Tigray region

In Tigray region, tensions between factions of the TPLF heightened, with the Tigray Administration leadership accusing the TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael of trying to dispose of the leadership and seize power.⁴ Recently, these tensions have manifested during public meetings held by both sides of the rift. Earlier this month, the interim government’s Getachew Reda faction conducted public discussions in various towns and locations. During an attempt to hold a meeting in Shire on 15 September, some participants allegedly influenced by the Debretsion faction started shouting and expressing opposition to Getachew, while others showed support for him. Due to the disruptive shouting, the meeting could not continue, and Getachew left.⁵ Meanwhile the Debretsion faction began to organize similar public meetings in various towns last week, aiming to persuade the public that it was Getachew’s faction causing disturbances and unrest.⁶

The widening fissure between two TPLF factions has led to internal divisions between the regional administration and the party leadership and threatens to devolve into violence. TPLF officials who side with Debretsion, who is chair of the TPLF, have accused the interim regional government of targeting pro-Debretsion faction leaders with dismissals and arrests, as well as banning public rallies, all in an effort to maintain control.⁷ The faction led by Debretsion is also calling for a review of the TPLF’s representation in the interim administration due to the recent suspension of 16 members of the TPLF’s executive committee from the party.⁸ Most of these suspended leaders, including interim leader Getachew, hold various top positions in the interim administration. The interim administration cabinet, in turn, has insisted that the differences are only among the TPLF leadership, and not between the interim administration and the TPLF.⁹ It also stated that it will continue appointing and removing officials in accordance with relevant regulations.

On 12 September, US Envoy for the Horn of Africa Mike Hammer met with the interim regional administration to discuss the implementation of the Pretoria peace agreement and asked the two TPLF factions to resolve their differences through dialogue.¹⁰ Both factions also expressed their disagreement over the contents of the peace agreement and how the agreement with the federal government was reached. The Debretsion faction holds Getachew and its faction responsible for signing the peace agreement, which they claim is designed to dismantle the TPLF.¹¹ On the other hand, the faction led by Getachew denies this claim and insists that the peace agreement is an international pact that should be honored.¹²

Ethiopia at a Glance

14-20 September 2024

The data cover the period from 14 to 20 September 2024. For more information about how ACLED collects data and categorizes events, see the ACLED Codebook. Some events from this coverage period might be included in the data in subsequent weeks due to reporting delays.

Political Violence Events¹³: 32

+14% from previous week

Demonstration Events¹⁴: 1

0% from previous week