The Northern Ethiopia Conflict

Last updated: 20/08/2024

Following Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in April 2018, political differences and tensions grew between the new government and the former leaders of the Ethiopian state — the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). From 1991 to 2018, the TPLF dominated the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) political coalition ruled and shaped Ethiopia’s governance, guided by revolutionary democratic ideals — referred to as ‘Abyotawi democracy.’ Abyotawi democracy is adapted from Marxist-Leninist-Maoist thought, and holds that elites must lead the masses to revolution and guide the democratic process of the country.¹It “defends collective rights through the notion of Nations, Nationalities and Peoples” Jean-Nicolas Bach, ‘Abyotawi democracy: neither revolutionary nor democratic, a critical review of EPRDF’s conception of revolutionary democracy in post-1991 Ethiopia,’ 2011, pp.643-644). When Abiy Ahmed came to power, he shifted away from Abyotawi democracy and introduced a new concept called ‘Medemer,’ which, according to his 2019 book on the concept, supports a pan-Ethiopian democracy “tailor-made” for Ethiopian culture, consciousness, and thinking.²Abiy Ahmed, ‘Medemer,’ 21 October 2019, pp. 97-108 Moreover, following Abiy’s rise to power, the TPLF members of the former government lost significant influence and authority and returned to run the regional government of Tigray without a foothold in the federal government.

Political differences came to a head almost immediately following Abiy’s ascension to power. The TPLF opposed and refused to join the new ruling party, the Prosperity Party, which was established by Abiy. Instead, Tigrayan members of the federal government abandoned their posts and headed to Tigray region, and shortly after, held a regional election in defiance of the federal government in September 2020.³Al Jazeera, ‘Speaker of Ethiopia’s upper house resigns after polls postponed,’ 9 June 2020; Giulia Paravicini, ‘Ethiopia’s Tigray holds regional election in defiance of federal government,’ Reuters, 8 September 2020 The sixth general election was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.⁴Jalale Getachew Birru, ‘Constitutional Impasse in Ethiopia: Finding a Solution for the Current Postponement of the 2020 General Election in Ethiopia,’ Verfassungsblog, 18 May 2020 Political grievances were expressed violently for the first time on 3 November 2020, when the Tigray regional special forces and militias, under the direction of the TPLF, attacked the northern command of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) in Tigray region. Since then, the conflict expanded to the neighboring regions (see map below) and passed through various stages until the day before it entered a second year, 2 November 2022, when the federal government and the TPLF signed the Agreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities.

The northern Ethiopia conflict passed through four stages before the Ethiopian government and the TPLF signed the Agreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities on 2 November 2022 in Pretoria, South Africa (see graph below). These four stages are:

First stage: 3 November 2020 to 27 June 2021

The first stage of the armed conflict erupted in Tigray region after the Tigray regional special forces and militias, under the command of the TPLF, attacked the ENDF’s northern command post on 3 November 2020. This attack led to four weeks of intense fighting, during which federal forces successfully gained control of all major cities in the region, including the capital city, Mekele. In this period, the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF) participated in the war, supporting the federal government and engaging in significant attacks on Tigray civilians.⁵Reuters, ‘Ethiopian PM confirms Eritrean troops entered Tigray during conflict,’ 23 March 2021 Activity during the first stage of the conflict was concentrated in Tigray region, though some battle events involving TPLF forces were recorded in Amhara region and Eritrea (see map below).

After government forces regained control of Tigray region in November 2020, TPLF forces switched tactics and began an insurgency. This marked a shift from the more conventional fighting tactics used during the first four weeks of the conflict. TPLF forces became increasingly difficult to identify as they integrated with the local population. Ethiopian and Eritrean forces reportedly carried out mass killings of civilians,⁶Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, ‘Investigation into grave human rights violation in Aksum city report on preliminary findings,’ March 2021 and all parties to the conflict reportedly committed sexual violence.⁷Helen Clark and Rachel Kyte, ‘In Tigray, Sexual Violence Has Become a Weapon of War,’ Foreign Policy, 27 April 2021 At the time, there was a perception among the local population that the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies were present in Tigray to punish the region for supporting the TPLF. This led to the successful recruitment of many youths who opposed what was happening to their families, allowing for the formation of a formidable fighting force, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF).⁸Associated Press, ‘‘I came here to fight’: Rare footage of Ethiopia’s Tigray,’ 14 July 2021; BBC, ‘Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae: Ethiopia’s Tigray rebel mastermind,’ 1 July 2021 Meanwhile, the ENDF incurred heavy losses, and Ethiopia’s top officials were crippled by diplomatic pressure — including sanctions — over accusations of civilian targeting and the involvement of Eritrean troops.⁹BBC, ‘Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict: Street celebrations as rebels seize capital,’ 29 June 2021; Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Ambassador Taye Atsikslase asked to stop the excessive and inappropriate political pressure on Ethiopia,’ 3 July 2021 Frustrated and facing an impending humanitarian and military disaster, the federal government decided to withdraw its forces from the region on 28 June 2021 after announcing a unilateral ceasefire.¹⁰International Crisis Group, ‘As Ethiopian Troops Exit Tigray, Time to Focus on Relief,’ 9 July 2021

Second stage: 28 June 2021 to 23 March 2022

The withdrawal of the ENDF and the government’s announcement of the unilateral ceasefire marked the beginning of the second stage of the armed conflict. The TPLF called the ceasefire a “joke” and promised to pursue and attack Eritrean forces, the ENDF, and Amhara regional forces unless its seven conditions for a mutual ceasefire in Tigray region were fulfilled.¹¹Giulia Paravicini and Maggie Fick, ‘Tigray forces seize regional capital, say Ethiopian-led troops are on the run,’ Reuters, 29 June 2021; Twitter @reda_getachew, 4 July 2021 The TPLF’s conditions included the withdrawal of Eritrean soldiers and Amhara regional forces from Tigray region. The TPLF also demanded full access to government services like telecommunications, electricity, banking, and transportation, as well as unlimited humanitarian access to the region (for more details on these preconditions, see EPO Weekly: 3-9 July 2021). In an effort to compel the federal government to accept this list of conditions, TPLF forces began attacking territories within Afar and Amhara regions (see map below). The expansion of the conflict into these regions prompted regional governments to issue calls for youth to mobilize and combat TPLF forces.¹²BBC Amharic, ‘The Amhara and Afar regional governments called on the people to ‘repel’ the TPLF rebels,’ 26 July 2021; BBC Amharic, ‘A call was made for all young people who are eligible for conscription in the Amhara region to march,’ 25 July 2021; EBC, ‘#Etv Deputy Mayor Mrs. Adanech Abebe called on the youth of Addis Ababa to join the Defense Forces,’ 26 July 2021

However, by the beginning of November 2021, TPLF forces had regained control of Dessie and Kombolcha towns, while the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — which had announced its alliance with the TPLF in August 2021, began to control areas within Oromia special zone in Amhara region. This development sparked widespread concern that TPLF forces would move further south and threaten the capital city, Addis Ababa, and other locations. As a result, the federal government declared a state of emergency on 2 November 2021 (for more details on the state of emergency, see EPO Weekly: 30 October-5 November 2021). Under the state of emergency, thousands of civilians, mostly Tigrayans with suspected links to the TPLF or OLA/OLF-Shane, were arrested throughout the country (for more, see EPO Weekly: 6-12 November 2021).

Third stage: 24 March to 23 August 2022

On 24 November 2021, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced his decision to lead ENDF forces “from the [war] front.”¹³Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation, 30 November 2021  In December, government forces rapidly began regaining control of most of the areas within Afar and Amhara regions as the ENDF continued to fight with TPLF forces using drones. On 20 December 2021, TPLF leaders announced the withdrawal of their forces back to the borders of Tigray region, while the government announced an end to the first round of military action against the TPLF and indicated it would no longer advance towards Mekele city.¹⁴Voice of America, ‘Tigray Forces Announce Withdrawal From Afar, Amhara Regions,’ 20 December 2021; Twitter @FdreService, 24 December 2021 Nevertheless, fighting continued on the borders of Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions until the Ethiopian government declared a unilateral ceasefire on 24 March 2022.¹⁵Twitter @FdreService, 24 March 2022 The Tigray regional government, led by members of the TPLF, also agreed to a “cessation of hostilities” for humanitarian assistance.¹⁶Twitter @TigrayEAO, 24 March 2022 This marked the beginning of the third stage.

The destruction caused by TPLF forces in Afar and Amhara regions has devastated local infrastructure and disrupted the lives of thousands of people.¹⁷Amhara Media Corporation, ‘The results of the study of the damage caused in the Amhara region due to the invasion of the terrorist TPLF have been announced,’ 29 September 2022; Maria Gerth-Niculescu, ‘‘My brothers and sisters are dying’: Inside the conflict in Ethiopia’s Afar region,’ The New Humanitarian, 31 March 2022; ENA, ‘More Than 85 Percent Health Institutions in Conflict Affected Regions Rehabilitated,’ 21 April 2022 The conflict forced millions of civilians to flee their homes¹⁸Ethiopian Monitor, ‘Over 1.8mln People Displaced from Afar, Amhara Due to TPLF’s Aggression: PM Office,’ 7 December 2021 and created a humanitarian crisis in northern Ethiopia. 

During the third stage of the conflict, no major clashes were reported between the two groups. Though not enough to cover local needs, limited amounts of humanitarian aid were entering Tigray region consistently by airplanes and trucks traveling on the Semera-Abala-Mekele road.¹⁹United Nations OCHA, ‘Ethiopia – Northern Ethiopia Humanitarian Update Situation Report, 7 Apr 2022,’ 7 April 2022 At the same time, the international community — especially the United States, European Union, and African Union — was trying to bring the two parties to the negotiation table. In June 2022, the Ethiopian federal government established a peace committee led by then-Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonen, representing the government, and insisted that the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa, Olusegun Obasanjo, lead the peace negotiations.²⁰Fana, ‘Peace alternative committee commences activities,’ 13 July 2022; Henry Wilkins, ‘Ethiopia PM Says Committee Created to Negotiate With Tigray Forces,’ Voice of America, 14 June 2022 However, the TPLF rejected this proposal and instead wanted the US and EU to lead the negotiations.²¹Getachew Reda, ‘Ethiopia: The African Union cannot deliver peace to Tigray,’ The Africa Report, 22 August 2022; Tigray TV, ‘Press Briefing by Member of Tigrai Central Command Getachew Reda, August 18, 2022,’ 18 August 2022; Twitter @TigrayEAO, 14 June 2022 Moreover, the TPLF continued to insist on the fulfillment of its preconditions, especially restoring basic necessities in Tigray and unlimited access to humanitarian aid.²²France24, ‘Ethiopia’s return to conflict: what we know,’ 25 August 2022; Twitter @reda_getachew, 4 July 2021 

Fourth stage: 24 August to 2 November 2022

After five months of relative calm, the northern Ethiopia conflict reignited again on 24 August 2022 when TPLF forces clashed with the ENDF, Amhara regional special forces, and Fano militias in North Wello zone in Amhara region and Southern Tigray zone in Tigray region. This marked the beginning of the fourth stage. Both sides accused each other of initiating the new round of armed clashes.²³Twitter @TigrayEAO, 24 August 2022; Twitter @FdreService, 24 August 2022 According to US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Mike Hammer, there had been signs that the TPLF might initiate another round of violence during his visit to Tigray on 2 August. According to some TPLF leaders, their forces were ready to wage war if the federal government did not restore communications and basic services.²⁴Africa Regional Media Hub, ‘Digital Press Briefing With U.S. Special Envoy For The Horn Of Africa, Mike Hammer,’ 20 September 2022 This round of conflict mostly concentrated in Tigray region, though some events involving the TPLF and its clashes with government forces, Amhara and Fano militias, Eritrean soldiers, and various regional special forces were also recorded in Afar and Amhara regions (see map below).

This led to the fourth stage of the conflict, which lasted until 2 November 2022, when the Ethiopian government and TPLF leaders signed the AU-led Agreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities. The TPLF accepted the AU-led peace negotiations with the federal government on 11 September 2022.²⁵Twitter @TigrayEAO, 11 September 2022 In the month leading up to the agreement, pro-government forces — the ENDF, Amhara regional special forces, and Amhara and Fano militias — along with allied troops from Eritrea, made rapid gains, retaking control of dozens of cities, towns, and villages in Tigray and Amhara regions.

The Agreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities was signed after more than a week of formal peace talks between the Ethiopian government and TPLF leaders in Pretoria, South Africa.