Ethiopia Weekly Update (19 November 2024)
Last updated: 08/08/2024
Tigray region is located in northern Ethiopia, bordered by Eritrea to the north, Sudan to the west, the Amhara region to the south, and the Afar region to the east and southeast. The region is primarily home to ethnic Tigrayans, Kunama, and Irob, among other ethnic groups. The majority ethnic group in the region is Tigrayans. The region is divided into six zones and one special zone. Since 1991, the region has been administered by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). From November 2020 to November 2022, the region was the site of the worst civil wars in the history of the country (see map below).
On 3 November 2020, regional militias loyal to the TPLF — acting as the administration of the Tigray region — attacked the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s (ENDF) Northern Command, sparking a war between the TPLF, led by Tigray Regional President Debretsion Gebremichael, and the federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
During the first week of armed conflict, the federal government quickly declared the TPLF government illegal, removed TPLF officials from their offices, stripped TPLF leaders of immunity, and appointed a new regional president.1Voice of America, ‘Ethiopia Names New Leader for Restive Tigray Region,’ 13 November 2020 Four weeks of intense fighting resulted in what appeared to be a decisive victory for the federal government, and its troops claimed to be squarely in control of all major cities in the region.
Although the conflict with the TPLF — which the government called a “law enforcement operation”2Twitter @AbiyAhmedAli, 10 November 2020; Ethiopia News Agency, ‘The Ongoing Law Enforcement Operations in Tigray: Causes and Objectives,’ 2020 – was declared officially over by the federal government on 28 November 2020,3Twitter @AbiyAhmedAli, 28 November 2020 clashes between TPLF forces and local militias on the one hand and the ENDF and the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF) on the other, continued to occur until November 2022. These clashes occurred in the context of a dire humanitarian situation and little access to aid in the region. In July 2021, the conflict expanded to the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions (for more, see EPO’s Northern Ethiopia Conflict page). Widespread rape, looting, and other abuses were reported throughout the course of the conflict by all actors, including Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers and militiamen.4Micheal Georgy, ‘’Choose – I kill you or rape you’: abuse accustation surge in Ethiopia’s War,’ Reuters, 25 January 2021; UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, ‘ Report of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC)/Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) Joint Investigation into Alleged Violations of International Human Rights, Humanitarian and Refugee Law Committed by all Parties to the Conflict in the Tigray Region of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia,’ 2021
The armed conflict between the TPLF and the federal government continued until the two parties signed a peace agreement. On 2 November 2022, the Ethiopian government and TPLF leaders signed the African Union-led Agreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities, bringing a close to a devastating conflict and putting Tigray region on the long and difficult road to recovery.
Although the Ethiopian government removed the TPLF’s designation as a ‘terrorist’ organization,5Al Jazeera, ‘Ethiopia removes ‘terrorist’ tag from Tigray regional party,’ 22 March 2023 the TPLF’s future as the political leadership in Tigray region is unclear. In March 2023, the federal government appointed Getachew Reda, spokesman for the TPLF, as the head of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray.6Reuters, ‘Ethiopia establishes Tigray interim administration as part of peace plan,’ 23 March 2023 Two months later, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) refused to restore the TPLF’s legal registration as a political party, citing a lack of regulation to reinstate a political party that lost its status due to its armed struggle against the government.7Addis Standard, ‘News: Election Board declines to restore TPLF’s legal registration as political party,’ 13 May 2023 On 4 June 2024, the parliament approved a new amendment to the Electoral, Political Parties Registration and Election’s Code of Conduct Proclamation, allowing former political parties that lost their political party status due to their involvement in armed clashes to re-register as a party.8Alian, ‘A law amendment was approved to allow the re-registration of political organizations that were outside of legal and peaceful political activities, 4 June 2024 Following this amendment, the general attorney asked the NEBE to re-register TPLF as a party on 24 June.9Tesfalem Woldeyes, ‘The Ministry of Justice submitted a request to the Election Board for TPLF to be registered “under special circumstances”’ Ethiopia Insider, 27 June 2024
As the leadership of Tigray region, the TPLF and the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray face a number of serious challenges. Demobilized but not disarmed, Tigray Defense Force soldiers frequently protest in Mekele, demanding better medical treatment and conditions. Tigray region faces food shortages, and thousands of internally displaced persons are unable to return to their homes in disputed territory in Southern and Western Tigray zones. In October 2023, internal tensions between the interim administration and TPLF leaders led to zone-level reshuffles in leadership.
The northern conflict in the Tigray region will have economic impacts for decades beyond the end of the armed fighting. On a large scale, government infrastructure, such as the Tekeze Dam and private sugar and garment factories, was destroyed. On a smaller scale, looting by various armed groups involved in the conflict left many households with nothing.
Disputed territories: Western Tigray and Southern Tigray zones
Authorities from Amhara region have been in de facto control of disputed territory along the Amhara and Tigray regional borders since the beginning of the northern Ethiopia conflict. The disputed territory includes the entirety of Western Tigray zone — Welkait, Tsegede, and Humera woredas10In this report, the areas specified as ‘Disputed Territory’ in Western Tigray Zone are referred to by the Amhara regional government as Wolkait, Tegede, and Setit Humera (ወልቃይት ጠገዴ ሰቲት ሁመራ). For the sake of simplicity in this report, the area is described as ‘Western Tigray zone,’ as it is officially referred to by the federal government. — as well as Tselemt woreda in North-Western Tigray zone and Raya-Azebo and Alamata woredas in Southern Tigray zone.
Prior to 1991, the contested territories of Raya and Welkait were administered as part of Wello and Gonder provinces, respectively — both currently within Amhara region.11Passport Party, ‘Tigray’s border conflicts explained,’ 11 November 2020 During the course of Ethiopia’s civil war between the TPLF and the Derg regime, which ended in 1991, these areas were taken over by TPLF.12Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe, ‘Laying the Past to Rest: The EPRDF and the Challenges of Ethiopian State-Building,’ 15 February 2020 The disputed areas were officially included in the Tigray region after the implementation of ethno-federalism in the 1990s. Between 1991 and November 2020, the area was administered as part of Tigray region, although a significant number of ethnic Amhara lived there. For the majority of the northern Ethiopia conflict, Amhara militias, including locally organized kebele militias, Fano militias, and Amhara regional special forces, were the main security forces in the area. Since the dissolution of the Amhara regional special police force in April 2023 and the beginning of the conflict between the federal government and Fano militias, the ENDF has taken control of security along transport routes and in major towns and border zones within the disputed areas.
In November 2023, the federal government announced that a referendum would decide the status of the disputed territories in Tigray region following the return of internally displaced people.13Addis Standard, ‘News: Referendum in Western Tigray not feasible amidst demographic changes, persistent displacement: Tigray interim admin,’ 13 February 2024 The announcement brought stiff resistance from both sides: Tigray regional authorities opposed the plan and expressed concern that internally displaced Tigrayans could not be returned to their homes while the areas were in the control of Amhara region. Amhara leaders in the disputed territories have stated their willingness to violently prevent the disputed areas from being administered by Tigray authorities. They claim that a referendum is unfair as the area was taken by force, and ethnic Amhara had been the victims of targeted killing and forced displacement for decades, so the decision should be made only by those “indigenous” to the area and not those who had moved in during the TPLF’s rule.14Iyob Tikuye, ‘It was requested that non-natives of the area should not be included in the referendum on the question of boundaries and identity for Raya,’ The Ethiopian Reporter, 10 April 2022 Any attempt to assert that Welkait in Western Tigray zone or Raya in Southern Tigray zone are not under Amhara administration will provoke armed resistance.15Amhara Media Corporation, ‘Message from Colonel Demeke Zewedu,’ 18 April 2022 On the other hand, leaving the area in the hands of the Amhara regional authorities risks upending the precarious peace afforded by the Pretoria agreement.
On 14 and 15 February 2024, Tigray ethnic militias clashed with Amhara ethnic militias near Korem town as well as in Chercher, Raya Alamata, and Raya Bala woredas in Southern Tigray zone, prompting the ENDF to intervene and de-escalate. This clash was the first round of clashes since the end signing of the Pretoria agreement in November 2022. It erupted a day after the president of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray indicated that the Tigray forces — which, according to the president, are over 270,000 — were not disarmed as per the Pretoria agreement.16VOA Amharic, ‘Getachew Reda: There is still mistrust between the federal and the Tigray region,’ 13 February 2024 The two groups clashed again at the end of March 2024, with four Amhara militiamen reportedly being killed and 12 others injured. While these confrontations were short, violence in this zone is significant, with the potential to spread to other locations. In a major escalation of hostilities, the two militias clashed in Raya Alamata, Zata, Ofla, and Alamata woredas in Southern Tigray zone from 13 to 15 April 2024. Over 50,000 people were forced to flee their residences due to this conflict.17United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, ‘Ethiopia: Flash Update #2: Displacement in North Wello and Wag Hamra Zones, Amhara Region (As of 22 April 2024),’ 22 April 2024 If the clash continues, it has the potential to affect the Pretoria peace agreement.
Disputed territories: Eritrean border
In 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed agreed to accept the 2002 decision of the Eritrea–Ethiopia Boundary Commission, which awarded Badme town to Eritrea, ending the ‘no war, no peace’ period between the two countries.18BBC, ‘Ethiopia ‘accepts peace deal’ to end Eritrea border war’, 5 June 2018 Between 2002 and 2018, the TPLF (then leading the Ethiopian federal government) maintained control of the town, as well as other territories awarded to Eritrea, collectively referred to as the ‘Yirga Triangle’ as part of the agreement.19James Jeffery, ‘Ethiopia to Return Land in Bid for Peace with Eritrea’ Reliefweb, 18 June 2018 The northern Ethiopia conflict erupted before Ethiopia officially handed over Badme to Eritrea, and was taken at the outset of the conflict by EDF soldiers. In the lists of preconditions the TPLF released in July 2021 and February 2022 for the peace agreement with the Ethiopian government, the group insisted on the withdrawal of non-TPLF forces to their pre-conflict territories, which would imply the TPLF retaking control of Badme town.
