Situation Summary

Armed clashes between insurgency groups and government forces continued in Amhara and Oromia regions. Civilian targeting by government troops and anti-government forces also persisted in both regions. As a result,  there was an overall increase in political violence last week. Meanwhile, limited clashes with rising political tensions centered around the contested territory continued in Tigray region.

Clashes and Civilian Targeting in Oromia Region

Armed clashes between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — intensified in Oromia region. Last week, armed clashes were recorded in Horo Guduru Wollega and North Shewa zones, with most fighting reported in North Shewa zone, Hidabu Abote woreda. Beginning on 15 February, four consecutive days of fighting between the ENDF and the OLA/OLF-Shane were reported in Kobe Gode kebele, in Hidabu Abote woreda, resulting in at least eight reported fatalities. Another seven civilian fatalities were reported due to clashes between the two actors in Ejere town in Hidabu Abote woreda, on 18 February. An ENDF statement released later claimed that its forces had taken military action against the OLA/OLF-Shane near Fiche Abot woreda, North Shewa zone, killing dozens of the OLA/OLF-Shane militants, including eight top military officials of the group.¹Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) Defense Force, ‘It was stated that actions taken against the extremists who hate the country have been intensified,’ 20 February 2024

On 19 February, armed militants with suspected links to the OLA/OLF-Shane attacked, kidnapped, and later killed four Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church (EOTC) monks from the Ziquala Monastery in East Shewa zone, 30 kilometers southwest of the town of Bishoftu. The EOTC officials blamed “armed groups,” pointing specifically toward the OLA/OLF-Shane.²Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church, ‘Current message from the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church,’ 22 February 2024; BBC Amharic, ‘The Ethiopian Orthodox Church announced that four monks were killed by gunmen in Ziquala Monastery,’ 23 February 2024 The Oromo Liberation Front party — from which the OLA/OLF-Shane split in April 2019 — insisted on an independent investigation.³Oromo Liberation Front-OLF/ABO, ‘OLF Statement Regarding the Killing of EOTC Priests and Calls for Independent Investigation,’ 25 February 2024 Kidnapping and violence targeting communal leaders and civilians have become a major issue in Oromia region over the past year (for more, see the EPO Weekly: 14-20 October 2023 and EPO Weekly: 21-27 October 2023).⁴Fred Harter, ‘This is a pandemic’: Ethiopia’s Oromia region gripped by surge in kidnappings,’ The Guardian, 23 January 2024 Religious violence with ethnic undertones is also a growing problem in the eastern part of the region, where the EOTC is viewed by some Oromos as being dominated by ethnic Amhara and Tigray and under-representing ethnic Oromo in its leadership positions, which led to disputes and religious violence in February 2023.

Airstrikes and Road Closures in Amhara Region

Armed clashes between Fano militias and government forces continued in Amhara region last week, with fighting recorded in Awi, ​​North Wello, South Wello, North Shewa, West Gojam, and South Gondar zones. On 19 February, a government airstrike hit a truck as it was traveling through Mojan Wedera woreda, North Shewa zone, shortly after clashes between Fano militias and ENDF forces. At least 30 people were reported killed, and 15 more were injured. The ENDF sources claim to have killed and captured several Fano militants as a result of clashes in the area.⁵DRE Defense Force, ‘The crackdown continues to be intensified on those armed forces that hate peace,’ 22 February 2024

Meanwhile, on 22 February, Fano militias reportedly shot and killed eight Oromo ethnic civilians in Shewa Robit town, North Shewa zone, after taking them from a public bus as they were traveling to Kemise, the administrative center of Oromia special zone.⁶Addis Standard, ‘News: Command Post imposes ban after militiamen brutally killed 8 civilians in Shewa Robit, Amhara region’, 24 February 2024 The killings came in the context of clashes and government operations targeting Fano forces in the area, as well as a rise in clashes between Fano militias, Amhara militias, and Oromo militias in the same location. Bursts of political violence are common at the border areas of Oromo special zone and North Shewa zone of Amhara region. The ENDF Command Post of Central Shewa — established to oversee the implementation of the state of emergency in the area –—  enacted road closures between Debre Berhan, Shewa Robit, and Dessie towns in an attempt to stem escalating violence, citing ongoing military operations against “extremist forces.”⁷Alemnew Mekonen, Hirut Melese, and Mantegaftot Seleshi, ‘Transportation services from Debre Berhan to Dessie and from Dessie to Debre Berhan have been suspended,’ DW Amharic, 26 February 2024

Last week, during a consultation with regional representatives of Amhara region, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed indicated that the government was willing to solve the conflict with Fano militias through peace, reconciliation, and dialogue.⁸Alemnew Mekonen, Hirut Melese, and Mantegaftot Seleshi, ‘The Prime Minister’s call for reconciliation,’ DW Amharic, 21 February 2024 This statement has been received with mixed reactions, as the government has been increasing its crackdown on perceived supporters of Amhara ethno-nationalist groups — including stripping the immunity of top government officials.⁹BBC Amharic, ‘Within a week, a third member of the Council had his immunity waived,’ 24 February 2024

Continued Armed Clashes in Disputed Territories of Tigray Region

In Tigray region, on 21 February, Tigray ethnic militia attacked Amhara ethnic militia in Zatta woreda, Southern Tigray zone, sparking short clashes before ENDF soldiers intervened. These clashes are a continuation of fighting between the two actors on  14 and 15 February near Korem town and Chercher, Raya Alamata, and Raya Bala woredas. Like the previous week, last week’s clashes were short and no fatalities were reported. Violence in this area has significant implications, with the potential to spread as it is a disputed territory between Amhara and Tigray regions and is linked with the Pretoria agreement — signed between the government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). According to the Pretoria agreement, the TPLF and the government of Ethiopia agreed to “resolve issues of contested areas in accordance with the constitution.”¹⁰Intergovernmental Authority on Development, ‘Agreement for lasting peace through a permanent cessation of hostilities between the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF),’ 3 November 2022 A government-announced referendum has yet to be scheduled.¹¹Addis Standard, ‘News: Referendum in Western Tigray not feasible amidst demographic changes, persistent displacement: Tigray interim admin,’ 13 February 2024